7. Appendix

Appendix for this Victoria’s Economic Bulletin research article.

	0m	1m	2m	3m	4m	5m	6m	7m	8m	9m	10m	11m	12m
2019 Q3	8.62	9.27	9.44	9.69	9.79	9.85	9.36	9.98	9.96	10.06	10.15	10.21	10.21
2019 Q4	9.02	9.67	10.11	9.40	10.22	10.22	10.37	10.49	10.57	10.57	11.35	11.39	10.50
2020 Q1	8.78	10.01	9.77	10.22	10.15	10.06	10.05	10.09	10.14	9.84	9.86	9.96	10.04
2020 Q2	9.02	9.05	9.13	9.20	9.19	9.57	9.41	9.61	9.81	9.83	9.97	10.04	10.16
2020 Q3	6.44	6.80	6.72	6.55	6.53	6.64	6.70	6.74	6.97	7.02	7.06	7.09	7.08
2020 Q4	8.00	8.09	8.68	8.86	8.86	9.09	9.16	9.27	9.23	9.25	9.22	9.21	9.19
2021 Q1	7.67	8.82	9.23	9.17	9.26	9.32	9.33	9.31	9.30	9.31	9.32	9.31	9.32
2021 Q2	8.49	9.98	10.33	10.26	10.19	10.22	10.26	10.26	10.24	10.30	10.28	10.27	10.27
2021 Q3	7.61	9.00	9.27	9.19	9.19	9.21	9.19	9.18	9.25	9.22	8.90	8.86	8.85
2021 Q4	8.28	9.18	9.60	9.74	9.75	9.77	9.79	9.78	9.77	9.76	9.77	9.82	9.81
2022 Q1	8.86	10.41	11.42	11.48	10.63	10.54	10.50	10.51	10.57	10.58	10.59	10.59	10.62
2022 Q2	10.68	10.69	11.04	11.28	11.52	11.86	12.14	12.19	12.25	12.28
2022 Q3	8.71	9.80	10.37	10.47	10.66	10.72	10.76
2022 Q4	9.58	10.53	11.28	11.54
2023 Q1	10.23
Average share	8.67	9.38	9.74	9.79	9.69	9.77	9.77	9.79	9.84	9.84	9.68	9.70	9.64

	0m	1m	2m	3m	4m	5m	6m	7m	8m	9m	10m	11m	12m
2019 Q3	30.93	29.19	28.84	29.11	29.23	29.07	28.45	29.10	29.12	29.00	29.05	29.06	29.20
2019 Q4	32.11	31.34	30.69	30.46	30.86	30.83	30.69	30.75	30.76	30.84	30.54	30.55	30.91
2020 Q1	28.20	27.60	27.04	27.09	27.14	26.98	26.91	26.91	26.93	27.22	27.34	27.37	27.19
2020 Q2	30.18	28.96	28.37	28.23	27.84	27.77	27.93	27.95	27.85	27.77	27.71	27.84	27.81
2020 Q3	22.68	21.69	20.77	20.65	20.64	20.60	20.48	20.48	20.53	20.60	20.70	20.81	20.89
2020 Q4	27.28	26.55	25.96	25.52	25.53	25.54	25.61	25.90	26.00	26.03	26.16	26.16	26.19
2021 Q1	28.25	27.05	26.32	26.38	26.55	26.61	26.60	26.61	26.64	26.69	26.71	26.71	26.78
2021 Q2	30.29	29.81	29.20	29.11	29.13	29.10	29.19	29.25	29.25	29.31	29.35	29.36	29.39
2021 Q3	27.25	26.70	26.33	26.29	26.22	26.27	26.32	26.34	26.39	26.43	26.53	27.18	27.19
2021 Q4	31.55	30.89	30.47	30.43	30.40	30.41	30.43	30.62	30.65	30.69	30.78	30.65	30.67
2022 Q1	27.69	27.21	26.68	26.60	26.88	27.50	27.45	27.46	27.41	27.37	27.38	27.40	27.48
2022 Q2	29.75	29.40	29.11	28.98	29.05	28.95	28.92	28.90	28.87	28.89
2022 Q3	28.00	27.62	27.11	27.33	27.26	27.44	27.64
2022 Q4	30.60	29.60	29.45	29.52
2023 Q1	27.40
Average share	28.81	28.11	27.60	27.55	27.44	27.47	27.43	27.52	27.53	27.57	27.48	27.55	27.61

	0m	1m	2m	3m	4m	5m	6m	7m	8m	9m	10m	11m	12m
2019 Q3	34.46	34.38	34.49	34.17	34.11	34.16	34.11	34.19	34.20	34.29	34.23	34.20	34.11
2019 Q4	33.65	32.93	32.88	32.84	32.83	32.77	32.85	32.79	32.75	32.71	32.49	32.46	32.75
2020 Q1	34.11	33.59	33.92	33.85	33.89	34.10	34.11	34.17	34.11	34.11	34.08	34.03	34.13
2020 Q2	34.04	34.15	34.08	34.39	34.81	34.59	34.59	34.54	34.57	34.71	34.79	34.69	34.68
2020 Q3	31.78	30.05	29.61	29.08	28.94	29.07	29.35	29.58	29.53	29.46	29.30	29.27	29.33
2020 Q4	35.17	35.19	34.70	34.95	34.96	34.78	34.51	34.03	33.98	34.00	34.01	34.01	34.05
2021 Q1	36.53	35.11	34.65	34.87	34.71	34.69	34.73	34.76	34.76	34.74	34.74	34.81	34.83
2021 Q2	36.58	34.45	34.12	34.09	34.05	34.12	34.06	34.04	34.12	34.08	34.10	34.09	34.09
2021 Q3	37.13	35.96	35.61	35.55	35.69	35.71	35.74	35.79	35.68	35.71	35.87	35.54	35.57
2021 Q4	36.56	35.99	35.47	35.24	35.32	35.29	35.31	35.24	35.24	35.24	35.22	35.29	35.30
2022 Q1	37.94	36.61	35.82	35.82	36.12	35.83	35.88	35.92	35.95	35.95	35.94	35.96	35.81
2022 Q2	35.77	35.41	35.23	35.19	35.06	34.93	34.84	34.82	34.83	34.77
2022 Q3	37.74	36.66	36.30	36.14	36.09	35.97	35.78
2022 Q4	35.06	34.48	33.87	33.68
2023 Q1	37.34
Average share	35.59	34.64	34.34	34.27	34.35	34.31	34.30	34.16	34.14	34.15	34.07	34.03	34.06

	0m	1m	2m	3m	4m	5m	6m	7m	8m	9m	10m	11m	12m
2019 Q3	25.99	27.16	27.22	27.02	26.88	26.92	28.07	26.73	26.71	26.65	26.57	26.53	26.49
2019 Q4	25.21	26.06	26.33	27.30	26.08	26.19	26.09	25.97	25.92	25.89	25.61	25.61	25.84
2020 Q1	28.91	28.81	29.27	28.85	28.83	28.86	28.94	28.82	28.83	28.83	28.72	28.64	28.63
2020 Q2	26.76	27.85	28.42	28.17	28.15	28.07	28.06	27.90	27.76	27.69	27.54	27.43	27.35
2020 Q3	39.10	41.47	42.90	43.73	43.89	43.69	43.47	43.20	42.97	42.92	42.94	42.83	42.70
2020 Q4	29.55	30.17	30.66	30.67	30.65	30.59	30.71	30.79	30.78	30.71	30.61	30.62	30.58
2021 Q1	27.55	29.03	29.81	29.58	29.47	29.38	29.34	29.31	29.30	29.26	29.23	29.18	29.07
2021 Q2	24.63	25.76	26.35	26.55	26.63	26.55	26.49	26.45	26.39	26.31	26.27	26.28	26.25
2021 Q3	28.01	28.35	28.80	28.97	28.90	28.81	28.76	28.69	28.69	28.64	28.70	28.43	28.38
2021 Q4	23.60	23.94	24.46	24.58	24.53	24.52	24.48	24.36	24.34	24.31	24.24	24.24	24.22
2022 Q1	25.51	25.77	26.08	26.10	26.37	26.14	26.16	26.10	26.08	26.10	26.09	26.05	26.09
2022 Q2	23.80	24.50	24.62	24.56	24.38	24.26	24.11	24.09	24.06	24.06
2022 Q3	25.54	25.92	26.22	26.06	26.00	25.88	25.83
2022 Q4	24.76	25.38	25.40	25.26
2023 Q1	25.03
Average share	26.93	27.87	28.32	28.39	28.52	28.45	28.50	28.54	28.49	28.45	28.77	28.71	28.69

	0m	1m	2m	3m	4m	5m	6m	7m	8m	9m	10m	11m	12m
2019 Q3	69.34	68.21	67.62	67.21	66.95	67.06	70.31	66.67	66.59	66.42	66.24	66.24	66.14
2019 Q4	69.51	68.16	67.80	70.88	66.91	66.74	66.74	66.64	66.58	66.53	65.94	65.86	66.47
2020 Q1	72.77	67.74	67.63	67.00	66.99	67.12	67.18	67.18	67.09	67.18	67.03	66.91	66.94
2020 Q2	69.04	68.91	68.62	68.48	68.92	68.79	68.99	68.72	68.54	68.62	68.51	68.39	68.31
2020 Q3	72.23	72.01	72.48	72.76	72.88	72.96	73.14	73.10	73.01	73.12	72.86	72.78	72.68
2020 Q4	71.31	70.86	70.43	70.72	70.94	70.74	70.83	70.43	70.39	70.36	70.37	70.30	70.34
2021 Q1	71.21	68.90	68.11	68.20	67.94	68.05	68.20	68.23	68.24	68.22	68.10	68.03	67.96
2021 Q2	69.36	66.43	66.03	66.02	66.28	66.41	66.48	66.38	66.33	66.23	66.22	66.19	66.16
2021 Q3	69.72	67.21	66.93	67.11	67.15	67.29	67.26	67.30	67.26	67.16	67.41	66.86	66.80
2021 Q4	69.66	68.01	67.16	66.77	66.87	66.86	66.96	66.78	66.77	66.70	66.66	66.61	66.59
2022 Q1	69.08	66.56	65.30	65.01	65.78	66.12	66.07	66.01	66.03	65.99	65.97	65.94	66.07
2022 Q2	67.11	65.93	65.45	65.38	65.09	64.92	64.80	64.77	64.69	64.64
2022 Q3	68.68	66.66	65.75	65.51	65.51	65.23	65.25
2022 Q4	68.07	66.83	65.57	65.12
2023 Q1	66.80
Average share	69.59	68.03	67.49	67.58	67.55	67.56	67.86	67.69	67.63	67.60	67.76	67.65	67.68

Table A6: Houses: Median price of settled sales transaction across vintages, by reference quarter

	0 months ahead	12 months ahead
2019 Q3	$600 000	$590 000
2019 Q4	$641 000	$625 000
2020 Q1	$635 000	$610 000
2020 Q2	$612 000	$605 000
2020 Q3	$580 000	$565 000
2020 Q4	$655 000	$646 000
2021 Q1	$695 000	$679 500
2021 Q2	$730 000	$710 000
2021 Q3	$715 000	$700 000
2021 Q4	$795 000	$778 000
2022 Q1	$778 000	$765 000
2022 Q2	$790 000
2022 Q3	$740 000
2022 Q4	$752 000
2023 Q1	$740 000

Table A7: Units – Median price of settled sales transaction across vintages, by reference quarter

	0 months ahead	12 months ahead
2019 Q3	$530 000	$525 000
2019 Q4	$560 000	$561 000
2020 Q1	$547 250	$550 000
2020 Q2	$550 000	$551 300
2020 Q3	$520 000	$525 000
2020 Q4	$558 000	$570 000
2021 Q1	$590 000	$580 000
2021 Q2	$600 000	$590 000
2021 Q3	$576 500	$580 000
2021 Q4	$615 550	$615 000
2022 Q1	$600 000	$595 000
2022 Q2	$596 000
2022 Q3	$570 000
2022 Q4	$575 000
2023 Q1	$560 000

Table A8: Average size of difference from final vintage estimate of HPI through-the-year growth (per cent)

	0m	1m	2m	3m	4m	5m	6m	7m	8m	9m	10m	11m
2019 Q3	-0.73	-0.48	-0.35	-0.24	-0.15	-0.09	-0.14	0.00	0.01	0.02	0.03	-0.01
2019 Q4	-0.44	-0.19	-0.46	-0.41	-0.16	-0.09	-0.14	-0.13	-0.04	-0.11	-0.10	-0.04
2020 Q1	-0.18	-0.24	-0.18	-0.15	-0.07	-0.02	0.09	0.05	-0.10	-0.13	-0.16	-0.11
2020 Q2	-0.48	-0.70	-0.76	-0.47	-0.31	-0.25	-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.03
2020 Q3	-0.32	-0.67	-0.63	-0.34	-0.28	-0.26	-0.21	-0.13	-0.21	-0.17	-0.04	-0.03
2020 Q4	-0.71	-0.70	-0.75	-0.59	-0.46	-0.35	-0.22	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02
2021 Q1	-0.45	-0.63	-0.84	-0.55	-0.43	-0.40	-0.31	-0.27	-0.25	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02
2021 Q2	-0.17	-0.57	-0.61	-0.43	-0.33	-0.26	-0.16	-0.17	-0.15	-0.08	-0.05	0.01
2021 Q3	-1.14	-1.11	-1.03	-0.60	-0.47	-0.38	-0.31	-0.29	-0.17	-0.14	-0.06	-0.02
2021 Q4	-0.64	-0.66	-0.61	-0.41	-0.37	-0.25	-0.22	-0.09	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02
2022 Q1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.22	-0.03	-0.14	-0.10	-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.08	-0.07
Average share	-0.48	-0.70	-0.76	-0.47	-0.31	-0.25	-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.03

^{Note: Final vintage (12 months ahead) data is only available up to 2022 Q1.}

Table A9: Average size of difference of estimate of HPI through-the-year growth rate from final estimate (per cent)

Months ahead	Overall	Inner (houses)	Metro (houses)	Outer (houses)	Inner (units)	Metro (units)	Outer (units)
0M	-0.49	-3.05	-0.73	-0.72	-0.14	1.19	0.16
1M	-0.55	-2.34	-0.87	-0.50	-0.49	0.50	-0.02
2M	-0.58	-2.18	-0.71	-0.40	-1.12	0.09	-0.17
3M	-0.38	-1.60	-0.43	-0.20	-0.44	0.12	-0.09
4M	-0.29	-0.86	-0.34	-0.12	-0.64	0.06	-0.03
5M	-0.22	-0.87	-0.13	-0.10	-0.46	0.09	-0.02
6M	-0.17	-0.52	-0.05	-0.09	-0.47	0.07	-0.01
7M	-0.12	-0.17	-0.04	-0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.03
8M	-0.11	-0.22	-0.03	-0.02	0.04	0.00	-0.07
9M	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01
10M	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.16	0.00	-0.02
11M	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02

Updated 11 October 2024