The results show no overall convergence in EV adoption across Australia's regions. Instead, different steady‑state equilibria exist with the algorithm detecting convergence to four clusters.
Club convergence analysis revealed that Australian regions vary widely in terms of their green awareness, and that there is a clear separation between the peripheral and higher-density regions at the heart of the states or territories. For regions in city centres, the likelihood of clustering at the top group of adopters remains higher than for regions outside the city centres. A key result found that while some regions in a particular jurisdiction appeared in the higher club of adoption, others in the same jurisdiction were found to belong to the lowest club of electric vehicle adopters. This spread of membership across the clubs suggests a wide gap in adoption rates across areas within the same state or territory.
These findings provide new data insights of particular importance to Victoria. Across the four most populous states, VIC leads the pack in terms of regional homogeneity in EV take up rates. We found 100 per cent of regions in VIC are fast EV adopters which is a rate that is far above those found for other key states in the country: NSW (85 per cent), QLD (79 per cent) and WA (90 per cent) (see Table 4). This implies that the issue of lagging regions in the sense of EV adoption is relatively minimized in VIC. These results are consistent with those indicated in the VFACTS 2023 report of the Federation Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) and provide strong empirical support to the claim that VIC leads in the rate of decarbonisation in the country1.
Our econometric modelling of macroeconomic determinants of electric vehicle adoption further revealed that a region’s green awareness, per capita income, educational attainment and level of inequality are the strongest region-level factors influencing EV adoption. Our findings are consistent with those found in other countries, but this study is the first to confirm these results for Australia.
In conclusion, this study explored the observed variations in regional adoption rates to understand trends and patterns of development, and how these can affect EV adoption behaviour over the foreseeable future. It provided new data insights that can be used to support strategic action for accelerating the adoption of EV technology across all regions of Australia.
Footnotes
[1] Premier of Victoria, Setting An Ambitious Emissions Reduction Target, accessed 3 Aug 2023.
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