- Published by:
- Department of Treasury and Finance
- Date:
- 1 Sept 2024
Tom van Buuren, Department of Treasury and Finance
Author contact details: veb@dtf.vic.gov.au.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Victorian Department of Treasury and Finance.
Suggested Citation: Tom van Buuren (2024), Unveiling household consumption dynamics: Analysing trends in GST revenue. Victoria’s Economic Bulletin, September 2024, vol 8, no 3. DTF.
Abstract
This paper introduces a data-driven methodology for estimating the goods and services tax (GST) revenue raised through household final consumption expenditure. The methodology centres around the use of input-output tables to derive the percentage of total household consumption subject to GST by broad consumption groups and in aggregate. In applying the methodology, it is found that between July 2000 (when GST was first introduced) and June 2019, the Australian household sector has consumed a greater share of goods and services subject to GST compared to consumption of GST-free items.
The study captures the immediate shift in household consumption since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, away from spending on tourism, hospitality, and in-person recreational activities which are all subject to GST. This is consistent with sudden border restrictions and necessary public health measures put in place throughout 2019‑20 and 2020-21. The study further demonstrates that a wave of discretionary spending followed the gradual easing of restrictions, leading to a notable and rare increase in the proportion of GST-chargeable goods and services within the household sector since the GST was introduced.
Using more recent data, the study shows that real household consumption on goods and discretionary items has since slowed down, contributing to a marked reduction in household consumption subject to GST. This downward trend is expected to continue as households moderate spending on discretionary items amidst cost-of-living pressures.
1. Introduction
The objective of this paper is to introduce a data driven methodology for tracking the total value and relative magnitude of the goods and services tax (GST) revenue raised through household consumption.
2. Literature review
The goods and services tax (GST) was introduced in July 2000 as part of a reform package to modernise the indirect tax system, replacing the Commonwealth wholesale sales tax (WST).
3. Data
The methodology uses two primary data sources from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
4. Empirical approach
The empirical approach used for this research paper.
5. Results
In this section, we discuss our results from the application of the methodology to estimate GST revenue using household consumption data from July 2000 to December 2023.
6. Conclusion
This paper has introduced a data-driven methodology for estimating GST revenue raised through household consumption, enabling the monitoring of trends in household consumption patterns and their impact on GST revenue.
Appendix A
Appendix A: Value, price, and volume.
Appendix B
Appendix B – Categorisation of household consumption categories.
Updated